Included Studies

These are the 21 studies and hypothesis that are planned to be replicated. For each, there is a corresponding market where participants can bet on whether:
The effect in the replication is in the same direction as in the original study, and is statistically significant with a p-value smaller than 0.05.
For all studies listed below, the sample size for the first data collection - "n (first data collection)" - refers to having 90% power to detect 75% of the original, standardized effect size (r). The sample size for the second data collection - "n (second data collection)" - refers to the pooled sample required to have 90% power to detect 50% of the original effect size.

Study 1 - Derex et al. (Nature, 2013)

Reference:
Derex, Maxime / Beugin, Marie-Pauline / Godelle, Bernard / Raymond, Michel (2013): Experimental Evidence for the Influence of Group Size on Cultural Complexity. Nature, 503: 389-391.

Hypothesis to replicate and bet on:
The probability of maintaining cultural diversity, that is observing both tasks in the group, increased with group size (a comparison of if maintaining cultural diversity (observing both tasks in the group) increases with group size for the four group size treatments).

Note: sample sizes (n) below refer to the number of groups.
Original Study Replication Study
p-value stand. effect size (r) sample size (n) n (1st data collection) n (2nd data collection)
0.000054 0.525 51 65 155

Study 2 - Hauser et al. (Nature, 2014)

Reference:
Hauser, Oliver P. / Rand, David G. / Peysakhovich, Alexander / Nowak, Martin A. (2014): Cooperating with the Future. Nature, 511: 220-223.

Hypothesis to replicate and bet on:
Voting (the group extraction level of the public good is determined by the median voter) leads to a higher degree of sustainability than an unregulated treatment (each group member decides how many units of the public good to extract) in an “Intergenerational Goods Game”.

Note: sample sizes (n) below refer to the number of pools.
Original Study Replication Study
p-value stand. effect size (r) sample size (n) n (1st data collection) n (2nd data collection)
1.427e-10 0.816 40 22 60

Study 3 - Nishi et al. (Nature, 2015)

Reference:
Nishi, A. / Shirado, H. / Rand, D. G. / Christakis, N. A. (2015): Inequality and Visibility of Wealth in Experimental Social Networks, Nature, 526, pp. 426–429.

Hypothesis to replicate and bet on:
In initially unequal situations, wealth visibility leads to greater inequality than when wealth is invisible (a comparison of the mean Gini coefficient between the visible and high initial inequality treatment and the invisible and high initial inequality treatment).

Note: sample sizes (n) below refer to session by round level observations.
Original Study Replication Study
p-value stand. effect size (r) sample size (n) n (1st data collection) n (2nd data collection)
0.0044 0.201 200 480 1060

Study 4 - Rand et al. (Nature, 2012)

Reference:
Rand, D. G. / Greene, J. D. / Nowak, R. A. (2012): Spontaneous Giving and Calculated Greed, Nature, 489, pp. 427–430.

Hypothesis to replicate and bet on:
Priming intuition increases cooperation in a public goods game compared to priming reflection (a comparison of the mean contribution in a public goods game between the “intuition-good“/“reflection-bad” treatments and the “intuition-bad”/“reflection-good” treatments).

Original Study Replication Study
p-value stand. effect size (r) sample size (n) n (1st data collection) n (2nd data collection)
0.0089 0.141 343 942 2127

Study 5 - Ackerman et al. (Science, 2010)

Reference:
Ackerman, J. M. / Nocera, C. C. / Bargh, J. A. (2010): Incidental Haptic Sensations Influence Social Judgments and Decisions, Science, 328, pp. 1712-1715.

Hypothesis to replicate and bet on:
Job candidates are evaluated as better overall if their cv is evaluated on a heavy clipboard rather than a light clipboard.

Original Study Replication Study
p-value stand. effect size (r) sample size (n) n (1st data collection) n (2nd data collection)
0.049 0.270 54 259 593

Study 6 - Aviezer et al. (Science, 2012)

Reference:
Aviezer, H. / Trope, Y. / Todorov, A. (2012): Body Cues, Not Facial Expressions, Discriminate Between Intense Positive and Negative Emotions, Science, 338, pp. 1225-1229.

Hypothesis to replicate and bet on:
The body context is diagnostic for the affective valence of the situation during peak intensity moments (tests the hypothesis of a higher mean valence rating of winning bodies versus losing bodies in the “body treatment” in Experiment 1 (within subjects test)).

Original Study Replication Study
p-value stand. effect size (r) sample size (n) n (1st data collection) n (2nd data collection)
1.551e-9 0.961 15 14 41

Study 7 - Balafoutas and Sutter (Science, 2012)

Reference:
Balafoutas, L. / Sutter, M. (2012): Affirmative Action Policies Promote Women and Do Not Harm Efficiency in the Laboratory, Science, 335, pp. 479-582.

Hypothesis to replicate and bet on:
With preferential treatment of women — i.e., each woman’s performance is automatically increased by one unit in the competition — more women will choose to compete (a comparison of the fraction of women who chose the tournament scheme rather than the piece rate scheme in the ’preferential treatment one (PT1)’ versus the ’control treatment (CTR)’).

Original Study Replication Study
p-value stand. effect size (r) sample size (n) n (1st data collection) n (2nd data collection)
0.018 0.197 144 485 1099

Study 8 - Duncan et al. (Science, 2012)

Reference:
Duncan, K. / Sadanand, A. / Davachi, L. (2012): Memory’s Penumbra: Episodic Memory Decisions Induce Lingering Mnemonic Biases, Science, 337, pp. 485-487.

Hypothesis to replicate and bet on:
Similar objects are more accurately identified as being similar if they are preceded by new objects than if they are preceded by old objects (a comparison of the fraction of objects rated as similar in trials where they are preceded by new objects compared to trials where they are preceded by old objects in Study 1b (within-subject variation)).

Original Study Replication Study
p-value stand. effect size (r) sample size (n) n (1st data collection) n (2nd data collection)
0.0042 0.674 15 36 92

Study 9 - Gervais and Norenzayan (Science, 2012)

Reference:
Gervais, W.M. / Norenzayan, A. (2012): Analytic Thinking Promotes Religious Disbelief, Science, 336, pp. 493-496.

Hypothesis to replicate and bet on:
Priming analytic thinking via images of “The Thinker” increases religious disbelief compared to viewing control images of a visually similar artwork.

Original Study Replication Study
p-value stand. effect size (r) sample size (n) n (1st data collection) n (2nd data collection)
0.029 0.289 57 224 514

Study 10 - Gneezy et al. (Science, 2014)

Reference:
Gneezy, U. / Keenan, EA / Gneezy, A. (2014): Avoiding Overhead Aversion in Charity, Science, 346, pp. 632-635.

Hypothesis to replicate and bet on:
The likelihood of choosing a charity is higher when potential donors know that the overhead is already paid for, than when the donors pay for overhead themselves (a comparison of the fraction choosing to donate to “charity: water” between the “50% overhead, covered treatment” and the “50% overhead treatment”).

Original Study Replication Study
p-value stand. effect size (r) sample size (n) n (1st data collection) n (2nd data collection)
0.0027 0.222 180 380 863

Study 11 - Janssen et al. (Science, 2010)

Reference:
Janssen, M. A. / Holahan, R. / Lee, A. / Ostrom, E. (2010): Lab Experiments for the Study of Social-Ecological Systems, Science, 328, pp. 613-617.

Hypothesis to replicate and bet on:
Communication increases average earnings in a common-pool resource game with spatial and temporal resource dynamics (a comparison of net earnings between the NCP condition and the C condition in periods 1 to 3).

Note: sample sizes (n) below refer to group and period observations.
Original Study Replication Study
p-value stand. effect size (r) sample size (n) n (1st data collection) n (2nd data collection)
8.362e-9 0.631 63 42 105

Study 12 - Karpicke and Blunt (Science, 2011)

Reference:
Karpicke, J.D. / Blunt, J.R. (2011): Retrieval Practice Produces More Learning than Elaborative Studying with Concept Mapping, Science, 331, pp. 772-775.

Hypothesis to replicate and bet on:
In a memory test one week after learning, Retrieval Practice leads to participants recalling more correct information than Concept-Mapping (a comparison between the Retrieval Practice and Concept Mapping conditions).

Original Study Replication Study
p-value stand. effect size (r) sample size (n) n (1st data collection) n (2nd data collection)
0.000039 0.602 40 47 114

Study 13 - Kidd and Castano (Science, 2013)

Reference:
Kidd, D. C. / Castano, E. (2013): Reading Literary Fiction Improves Theory of Mind, Science, 342, pp. 377-380.

Hypothesis to replicate and bet on:
Reading literary fiction improves affective Theory of Mind (a comparison of the mean Reading the Mind in the Eyes Test (RMET) score between the literary fiction treatment and the nonfiction treatment in experiment 1).

Original Study Replication Study
p-value stand. effect size (r) sample size (n) n (1st data collection) n (2nd data collection)
0.0133 0.269 86 263 601

Study 14 - Kovacs et al. (Science, 2010)

Reference:
Kovacs, A. M. / Teglas, E. / Endress, A. D. (2010): The Social Sense: Susceptibility to Others’ Beliefs in Human Infants and Adults, Science, 330, pp. 1830-1834.

Hypothesis to replicate and bet on:
Participants automatically project agents’ beliefs and store them in a way similar to that of their own representation about the environment (a comparison of the mean reaction time between the “P-A- treatment” and the “P-A+ treatment” in study 1 (within subject variation)).

Original Study Replication Study
p-value stand. effect size (r) sample size (n) n (1st data collection) n (2nd data collection)
0.0238 0.450 24 89 209

Study 15 - Lee and Schwarz (Science, 2010)

Reference:
Lee, S.W.S. / Schwarz, N. (2010): Washing Away Postdecisional Dissonance, Science, 328, p. 709.

Hypothesis to replicate and bet on:
Hand washing will significantly reduce the need to justify one’s choice by increasing the perceived difference between alternatives. Specifically, the mean difference between the rankings of the chosen and rejected albums before and after making the choice will be greater for the soap examining condition compared to the soap hand washing condition.

Original Study Replication Study
p-value stand. effect size (r) sample size (n) n (1st data collection) n (2nd data collection)
0.0133 0.388 40 123 286

Study 16 - Morewedge et al. (Science, 2010)

Reference:
Morewedge, C. K. / Young E. H. / Vosgerau, J. (2010): Thought for Food: Imagined Consumption Reduces Actual Consumption, Science, 330, pp. 1530-1533.

Hypothesis to replicate and bet on:
Repeatedly imagining eating a food subsequently reduces the actual consumption of that food (a comparison of the 30-repetition treatment and the control treatment in experiment 1).

Original Study Replication Study
p-value stand. effect size (r) sample size (n) n (1st data collection) n (2nd data collection)
0.0092 0.453 32 89 211

Study 17 - Pyc and Rawson (Science, 2010)

Reference:
Pyc, M. A. / Rawson, K. A. (2010): Why Testing Improves Memory: Mediator Effectiveness Hypothesis, Science, 330(6002), p. 335.

Hypothesis to replicate and bet on:
Retrieval of mediators is greater with test-restudy practice than with restudy practice (a comparison of mean mediator retrieval between the test-restudy and the restudy treatments within the CMR treatment).

Original Study Replication Study
p-value stand. effect size (r) sample size (n) n (1st data collection) n (2nd data collection)
0.02 0.377 36 132 306

Study 18 - Ramirez and Beilock (Science, 2011)

Reference:
Ramirez, G. / Beilock, S.L. (2011): Writing About Testing Worries Boosts Exam Performance in the Classroom, Science, 331, pp. 211-213.

Hypothesis to replicate and bet on:
In a high-pressure in-lab math test, those writing expressively about the upcoming test for 10 minutes perform better on that test compared to simply sitting quietly.

Original Study Replication Study
p-value stand. effect size (r) sample size (n) n (1st data collection) n (2nd data collection)
0.00003 0.793 20 26 66

Study 19 - Shah et al. (Science, 2012)

Reference:
Shah, A. K. / Mullainathan, S. / Shafir, E. (2012): Some Consequences of Having Too Little, Science, 338, pp. 682-685.

Hypothesis to replicate and bet on:
Low-wealth subjects, that are given fewer chances to win in repeated “Wheel of Fortune” type word puzzle games, perform worse in a subsequent attention task (Dots-Mixed task) than do high-wealth individuals (a comparison of the mean performance on the Dots-Mixed task between the “poor treatment” and the “rich treatment”).

Original Study Replication Study
p-value stand. effect size (r) sample size (n) n (1st data collection) n (2nd data collection)
0.046 0.267 56 263 602

Study 20 - Sparrow et al. (Science, 2011)

Reference:
Sparrow, B. / Liu, J. / Wegner, D.M. (2011): Google Effects on Memory: Cognitive Consequences of Having Information at Our Fingertips, Science, 333, pp. 776-778.

Hypothesis to replicate and bet on:
Computer terms are more accessible than general words after answering a block of hard trivia questions; measured as longer color-naming reaction times in a Modified Stroop Task after priming with computer terms compared to priming with non-computer terms (paired t-test, within subject variation).

Original Study Replication Study
p-value stand. effect size (r) sample size (n) n (1st data collection) n (2nd data collection)
0.0021 0.437 46 93 218

Study 21 - Wilson et al. (Science, 2014)

Reference:
Wilson, T.D. / Reinhard, D.A. / Westgate, E.C. / Gilbert, D.T. / Ellerbeck, N. / Hahn, C. / Brown, C.L. / Shaked, A. (2014): Just Think: The Challenges of the Disengaged Mind, Science, 345(6192), pp. 75-77.

Hypothesis to replicate and bet on:
An external activity from a list (e.g. watching television or reading a book) for 12 minutes is rated as being more enjoyable than a 12 minute “thinking period” entertaining themselves with their thoughts (a higher average self-rated enjoyment (the mean of three nine-point scale items) in the “external activities” treatment than in the “standard thought instructions” treatment in Study 8).

Original Study Replication Study
p-value stand. effect size (r) sample size (n) n (1st data collection) n (2nd data collection)
0.000044 0.674 30 36 91